Superforecaster (AI Research Project)

This role is for one of our clients

A leading AI research group is seeking top-tier superforecasters to support a high-impact initiative aimed at strengthening AI systems' long-range prediction and reasoning abilities. The role involves generating calibrated, data-driven forecasts across domains such as geopolitics, global markets, macroeconomics, and emerging world events. Ideal for professionals affiliated with respected forecasting communities and with a proven track record of high-accuracy predictions.

Requirements:
Key Responsibilities

• Produce well-reasoned, probability-based forecasts on complex global questions
• Clearly document thought process, assumptions, data sources, and methodologies
• Engage in peer review and collaborative refinement of forecasts
• Provide input on prompt design, scoring systems, and question resolution criteria
• Assist in benchmarking and evaluating AI-generated forecasts against expert human performance

Ideal Qualifications

• Affiliation with a recognized forecasting program (e.g., Good Judgment Project, Swift Centre, Rand Forecasting Initiative, International Institute of Forecasters)
• Proven forecasting accuracy and calibration over multiple years
• Experience participating in competitive or public forecasting tournaments
• Strong analytical, probabilistic reasoning, and written communication skills
• Ability to work independently in a structured, asynchronous environment

Project Details

• Fully remote and asynchronous — choose your own working hours
• Expected commitment: 10–20 hours per week

Compensation & Terms

• Compensation range: $140–245 per hour (U.S.-based candidates)
• Engagement classified as independent contractor