Peak Sales Forecasting Expert

This role is for one of our clients

Compensation: $200-$275 per hour

We are seeking a highly experienced forecasting leader who brings real-world accountability — someone who has owned peak-sales forecasts that directly influenced business development, portfolio strategy, or investment decisions. While the existing forecasting framework produces strong numerical outputs and narratives, it requires expert judgment to define what “realistic” truly looks like in practice.

What You Will Do

• Develop “gold-standard” peak-sales forecasts for representative drug programs using provided prompts, TPPs, and analogs.
• Establish structural checks, scenario logic, and sanity thresholds for automated evaluation of forecasts.
• Make explicit the heuristics, base-rate assumptions, and pattern-recognition principles that experienced forecasters use to distinguish credible projections from speculative ones.

Requirements:
Ideal Profile

Industry Commercial Forecaster Background

• Director/Senior Director/VP-level experience in global forecasting, brand planning, or commercial insights.
• Proven track record building and defending patient-based peak-sales models used for BD, portfolio, or investment decisions.
• Experience forecasting across multiple drugs or indications, especially pre-launch through early commercialization.
• Ability to clearly explain assumptions around penetration, price, ramp curves, LOE, and how they evolve post-launch.
• Familiarity with preparing governance-ready peak-sales models for executive committees or investor-facing reviews.

Market / VC / Buy-Side Analyst Background

• Senior biotech equity analyst or VC/Buy-side professional experienced in incubation, company creation, or asset diligence.
• Built patient-level and revenue models used for valuation, investment diligence, or transaction decisions.
• Ability to critique bottoms-up forecasts and identify optimistic biases, flawed analogs, or unrealistic model structures.

Experience Level

• 10–15 years in biotech/pharma forecasting, investment, commercial strategy, or related fields.
• Experience covering pre-launch forecasts through post-launch actuals for multiple assets.
• CV bullets like:
• “Led global forecast for [drug]”
• “Owned long-range revenue planning and peak-sales scenarios”
• “Built patient-based models for portfolio decisions”

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• Deep comfort with market modeling logic including:
TPP → eligible pool → penetration → pricing/net → ramp curve → LOE
• Ability to explain real vs. modeled outcomes and articulate where forecasts diverged from reality.

Expected Deliverables

1. Golden Forecast Output

• A benchmark-quality peak-sales forecast including peak value and a revenue curve across key years.
• A 3–5 point narrative on primary value drivers and 2–3 downside risks.
• Clearly demonstrates expert calibration of realistic vs. inflated scenarios.

2. Forecast Rubric

• A structured evaluation framework for forecast credibility.
• Includes critical checks such as market structure logic, analog fit, patient flow validity, regional assumptions, and LOE treatment.
• Defines clear scoring standards from “unacceptable” to “excellent.”

3. Know-How Layer

• Commentary revealing expert forecaster reasoning, including:
• How base rates and analogs are selected
• How optimism is tempered (payer pushback, access constraints, share ceilings)
• How to identify implausible model structures or magnitudes

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Engagement Model

• Contract / Part-time (Remote) — collaborate flexibly with data science and evaluation teams.
• Open to all qualified applicants and supportive of reasonable accommodation requests.